12/30/2023 0 Comments World trending news 2015Whilst year-to-year climate variability means that future years may not be as warm as 2015 and therefore below 1☌, the long-term warming trend is expected to continue. This year, with a pronounced El Niño underway that acts to elevate global average surface temperature, it is looking probable that 2015 will be warmer than any other year in the observational record. This is due to a number of possible factors, including increased aerosols and an increase of heat taken up by the deep ocean and therefore not manifested as a warming at the surface. The rate of warming during the period from 1970-1998 was around 0.17☌ per decade, while during 1998-2012, the rate slowed to around 0.04☌ per decade 3. Over recent years there has been a slowdown in warming at the Earth's surface. On top of this long-term warming trend, year-to-year climate variability, caused by phenomena such as El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, can act to either reduce or enhance the rate of increase of global temperatures in some cases these patterns of variation can lead to fluctuations over years or decades. The Earth's global average surface temperature record gives a long-term perspective from which we can determine that temperatures have risen since pre-industrial times, consistent with a warming of the climate system as a whole and as observed in multiple climate indicators 2. In 2010, parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed warming should be limited to below 2☌ to avoid dangerous climate change. ![]() The warmth of 2015 represents an important marker because it means we are reaching halfway to 2☌ for the first time. This is based on the current January to September 2015 temperature anomaly, and is also expected to hold when the final full-year anomaly is calculated. Global annual average surface temperature in 2015 is looking set to reach 1☌ above the pre-industrial average (as represented by the 1850-1900 reference period) for the first time, according to the HadCRUT4 dataset produced by the Met Office and the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (see figure 1).
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